UFC 81: Breaking Point predictions and discussion

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UFC 81: Breaking Point predictions and discussion

Post by gutterhippo » Sat Jan 26, 2008 3:46 pm

The Rules:
+1 point per right answer (other than bonus questions, which will have the point value indicated next to the question)
+Will be asked to predict who wins, how, and in what round (note: title fights are 5 rounds, all other fights are 3 rounds)
+Ways to win:
Unanimous Decision
Split Decision
Knockout
Technical Knockout/Referee Stoppage (includes doctor stoppage due to cut)
Submission (includes physical/verbal tapping out and corner stoppage)
DQ
Draw
+Only main card fights
+To get points for predicting the round and way the fight ended, you must correctly predict who won the fight (For example, if you said that Liddell would win a first round TKO on Rampage at UFC 71, you would get zero points because, even though the fight ended with a first round TKO, Liddell didn't win it).
+Predictions must be in by 5pm Pacific/8pm Eastern time of the day of the fights.




UFC 81: Breaking Point
Saturday, February 2nd, 2008

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia (Interim Heavyweight Title Fight)
(who wins? how? round?)

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
(who wins? how? round?)

Jeremy Horn vs. Nate Marquardt
(who wins? how? round?)

**BONUS QUESTIONS**
1 point: How many fights (including prelims) will Steve Mazzagatti referee (0-9)?

1 point: Including preliminary fights, will there be any occurance of a knockout by a headkick, flying knee, or spinning backfist (yes or no)?
Last edited by gutterhippo on Thu Jan 31, 2008 10:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by gutterhippo » Sat Jan 26, 2008 4:06 pm

Tim Sylvia by unanimous decision, 5th round
Frank Mir by submission, 1st round
Jeremy Horn by submission, 3rd round
Ricardo Almeida by submission, 1st round

Bonus Question 1: 3
Bonus Question 2: no
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Post by Evolution » Sat Jan 26, 2008 5:48 pm

Sylvia by Unaminous Decision 5th round
Lesnar by 1st round TKO
Marquardt by Unaminous decision 3rd round
Belcher by 2nd round TKO

1. 3
2. No

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Post by TDFG » Mon Jan 28, 2008 8:17 am

Nogueira vs. Sylvia
Sylvia, Unanimous Decision

Lesnar vs. Mir
Mir, Submission - rnd 2.

Horn vs. Marquardt
Marquardt, unanimous decision

Belcher vs. Almeida
Belcher, tko - rnd 3.

1. 3
2. No.
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Post by Evolution » Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:39 pm

I have to say I'm suprised that you guys have taken Mir over Lesnar. Mir is a submission fighter but after his motorcycle he has never been the same.

Lesnar may be 1-0 but if you guys remember Mir lost to Pe de Pano who was 1-0 at the time.

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Post by go to sleep » Mon Jan 28, 2008 1:17 pm

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia (Interim Heavyweight Title Fight)
Tim Sylvia-Unanimous Decision-5th Round

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
Brock Lesnar-Unanimous Decision-3rd Round

Jeremy Horn vs. Nate Marquardt
Nate Marquardt-TKO-3rd Round

Alan Belcher vs. Ricardo Almeida
Alan Belcher-TKO-1st Round

Bonus: 3
Bonus: No
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Post by gutterhippo » Mon Jan 28, 2008 7:01 pm

Evolution wrote:I have to say I'm suprised that you guys have taken Mir over Lesnar. Mir is a submission fighter but after his motorcycle he has never been the same.

Lesnar may be 1-0 but if you guys remember Mir lost to Pe de Pano who was 1-0 at the time.
Well, if I were to put money on this fight, I'd definitely go with Mir. It may not be what is supposed to happen, but it's just the smarter bet, IMO. I agree that Mir has had a hard time coming back from the motorcycle accident, but there's just too many question marks with Lesnar for me to pick him.

-Lesnar's one fight was against a can, who took the fight on short notice. Sure, Lesnar walked through the guy, but he really didn't show a ton of technique or any reason to think that he's something special.

-Lesnar has never fought in the octogon. As much experience as he's had in high pressure situations with big crowds, the 'UFC jitters' might just get to him.

-In interviews, Lesnar talks about Tim Sylvia, and about how Mir is the "first round" of a tournament. Brock might just be looking past Frank Mir, which would be a huge mistake.

-Lesnar was a good wrestler. But, he's years removed from his amateur wrestling days. And you need more than wrestling in MMA. I heard he was training with Royce Gracie, so he may be more well-rounded than I give him credit for, but I can just imagine how the fight will go: Mir and Lesnar circle, Lesnar throws a few jabs before shooting from the outside, Mir pulls off an easy sub.

Don't get me wrong, I want Lesnar to win. I'm sure everyone is waiting for this pro wrestler to get creamed in a real fight so they can talk more trash about how pro wrestlers aren't real atheletes. I'd love to see Lesnar out-work Mir for 3 rounds to shut up the critics. But, from a betting standpoint, Mir just seems like the smarter bet to me (especially since he is currently the underdog on the bet lines..).
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Post by go to sleep » Mon Jan 28, 2008 10:27 pm

my friend and I have been talking about the lesnar/mir fight for awhile now and we both agree that the defining factor of this fight lies on which Mir shows up.....if it's former champ Mir than lesnar is def in some trouble

my gut is going with lesnar though. despite the fact that he is far removed from the amateur wrestling days i think that s going to be the key to this fight. i look for lesnar to go for the take down and then control mir on the ground for 3 rounds. i can't see this being all that exciting unless lesnar can throw in some good pound w/ his ground

of course based on my picks from the last ppv Mir will likely win by 1st round spinning backfist
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Post by Evolution » Mon Jan 28, 2008 10:36 pm

Well if the determining factor of the Lesnar/Mir fight is what Mir will show up its gonna be Lesnar getting the victory. I dont know if the real Mir has ever showed up after his accident.

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Post by gutterhippo » Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:45 am

See, that's the thing. We know what Mir can bring, on good and bad days. We have no clue about what Brock Lesnar can bring. Maybe even a less-than-championship-caliber Frank Mir could still beat Lesnar. And, I agree that Mir hasn't looked stellar coming from that accident, but has he really looked that bad? His last fight looked pretty darn good, IMO.
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Post by Evolution » Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:59 am

gutterhippo wrote:See, that's the thing. We know what Mir can bring, on good and bad days. We have no clue about what Brock Lesnar can bring. Maybe even a less-than-championship-caliber Frank Mir could still beat Lesnar. And, I agree that Mir hasn't looked stellar coming from that accident, but has he really looked that bad? His last fight looked pretty darn good, IMO.
Well yes he did win with a first round submission but it was against Antoni Hardonk who doesnt have much if not any ground game. But Mir's fight before was a embarrasing as he didnt put up much of a fight against Vera, losing in a minute.

I know what Mir is gonna show up...

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Post by go to sleep » Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:23 am

the thing about losing the vera fight is that vera wasn't coming in with only one fight under his belt. vera was undefeated at the time and is an all-around good fighter. it could be argued that until sylvia vera didn't fight too many stars but he still submitted the talented/experienced assuerio silva. lesnar's only win has come from some bum tapping out after taking a few shots. mir's loss to vera doesn't look good for mir but i don't think it necessarily means that it's a good sign for lesnar. just because mir got spanked by a guy who later went on to fight for the title doesn't mean he's going to get stomped by a guy who has a good wrestling past but has really yet to prove himself in the mma world.
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Post by Evolution » Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:35 pm

I'm just saying Mir lost to Pe da Pano who was unproven at 1-0. Lesnar should GnP Mir but we'll see how good Lesnar sub defense is.

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Post by go to sleep » Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:07 pm

Evolution wrote:I'm just saying Mir lost to Pe da Pano who was unproven at 1-0. Lesnar should GnP Mir but we'll see how good Lesnar sub defense is.
i couldn't agree with you more. that why me picking lesnar scares me....i feel like he might get a little too ambitious and think he's dominating mir just cuz he's on top.....esp with mir so dangerous off his back
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Post by stonecoldnimrod » Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:28 pm

go to sleep wrote:
Evolution wrote:I'm just saying Mir lost to Pe da Pano who was unproven at 1-0. Lesnar should GnP Mir but we'll see how good Lesnar sub defense is.
i couldn't agree with you more. that why me picking lesnar scares me....i feel like he might get a little too ambitious and think he's dominating mir just cuz he's on top.....esp with mir so dangerous off his back
gts took the words right out my mouth (or off my fingertips).
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Post by gutterhippo » Thu Jan 31, 2008 12:24 am

Alan Belcher is out of UFC 81 with bronchitis. He will be replaced by Rob Yundt. And, although the Yundt/Almeida fight is listed as a main card fight, because people have already added their predictions, I won't ask people to go back and change their predictions, and I just won't count the fight this time.


On another note, what does everyone think of the Big Tim/Nogueira fight? Looks like everyone so far is picking Sylvia to win by decision. So, I guess we're not buying the "I want to knock him out" line that Big Tim always gives us. And, it looks like some of us are questioning how great Nogueira really is.

Interestingly, Nogueira is the favorite on the bet lines right now..
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Post by go to sleep » Thu Jan 31, 2008 10:54 am

^^^^

of course tim wants to knock him out and of course he's giving us the usual line. tim is one of those guys who isnt all that explosive but uses his size/reach to his advantage better than most fighters. nogueira is a great fighter and he'll def show up in great shape, but tim just knows how to work a fight.

tim gets booed a lot and probably wants the KO to show the fans that not only is he capable of finishing a fight but that he deserves that belt. unfortunately for tim, i look for this fight to be a usual tim sylvia fight. nothing exciting but he'll defend the takedown, get his shots in when he can, and win a unanimous decision
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Post by Evolution » Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:44 am

I was thinking about taking Sylvia by a late TKO but I cant see him finishing Nog. If he does I wouldnt be suprised. And if Nog is favoured to win I think there will be alot of people betting on Sylvia to win.

And for the record, Mir/Lesnar I'll be rooting for Mir.

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Post by El Rockero » Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:43 pm

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia (Interim Heavyweight Title Fight)
Nogueira. Unanimous Decision. 5th round

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
Lesnar. TKO. 2nd round

Jeremy Horn vs. Nate Marquardt
Marquardt. Split decision. 3rd round.

**BONUS QUESTIONS**
How many fights (including prelims) will Steve Mazzagatti referee (0-9)?
3

1 point: Including preliminary fights, will there be any occurrence of a knockout by a headkick, flying knee, or spinning back fist?

yes
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Post by Supro » Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:09 pm

Evolution wrote:
gutterhippo wrote:See, that's the thing. We know what Mir can bring, on good and bad days. We have no clue about what Brock Lesnar can bring. Maybe even a less-than-championship-caliber Frank Mir could still beat Lesnar. And, I agree that Mir hasn't looked stellar coming from that accident, but has he really looked that bad? His last fight looked pretty darn good, IMO.
Well yes he did win with a first round submission but it was against Antoni Hardonk who doesnt have much if not any ground game. But Mir's fight before was a embarrasing as he didnt put up much of a fight against Vera, losing in a minute.

I know what Mir is gonna show up...

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I'm sorry, but did that guy just Tyson him?
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